Physically-based statistical analysis of extreme floods: theory and application tools
A research project sponsored by CEATI International
This project is to better (statistically) predict the floods by using a physically
based approach established on systems which respect a scale symmetry over a wide
range of space-time scales to determine the relationship between flood magnitude
and return period for a wide range of aggregation periods.
major activities of the project include data selection, data analysis and methodology
development. It aims to resolve several problems encountered in existing flood studies
related to the data non-stationary, long range dependencies and the clustering of
extremes often resulting in fat tailed (i.e., an algebraic type) probability
distributions. The techniques for handling such non-classical variability over wide
ranges of time and space scale exist and should be applied to dam management
throughout the world. The ambition of this project is to investigate very
large data sets of reasonable quality (e.g., daily stream flow data recorded
for at least 20 years for several thousands of gages distributed all over Canada
and the USA).
At the same time, one of the main objectives of
the project remains the ability of using very scarce historical data, very short
or incomplete data records for reliable statistical flood predictions. The goal of
the space data analysis is the ability of transferring regional flood information
to poorly gaged sites.
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